Friday, September 6, 2013

FX market weekend summaries

 $AUDUSD closed higher in today's trading session, the U.S Non Farm Payroll came below expectation, traders speculated the Fed will delay tapering boost the Aussie. The pair now sitting at major confluence point, I think the number wasn't terrible enough to stop the Fed taper, the Aussie is probably overreacted.

Another factors help the Aussie is the Australian Federal Election over the weekend, traders in the market expected the opposition party to win, and that's what I expected as well. The opposition plan to get rid off mining tax and carbon tax which may boost the economy. $AUDUSD pretty much priced in that factors, if opposition win, I think we can see a little pop in early Monday, and I I expected the rally fade later on. My preference is to short at 0.9210, stop 0.924 and target 0.9150

 $EURUSD closed higher in today's trading session like the Aussie, the pair broke 100 days moving average on Thursday but recovered in today's session. The pair remain in a downtrend, however I think $EURUSD will moved higher if the pair can hold the 100 days moving average.The pair is likely to retest the 100 days SMA again and my preference is to long at 13118, stop 13080 and target 13200

 $USDJPY down nearly 1% in today's trading session. However late in the day the pair moved higher and closed above 50 days and 100 days SMA. The pair just finished a wedge and now its in a bullish mood, my preference is to long and target 100, stop 98.5.

One key risk is Abe's sales tax hike. Traders concern the tax hike could stall recover, on the other hand, traders also concern Japan's fiscal situation. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 250%. Highest in developed country.

$GBPUSD finished 0.3% higher on the day. Cable is in a bullish mood, the pair is above 50 days and 100 days SMA, UK economy finally recover, BOE is likely to hold fire, perhaps reduced QE. Services PMI and manufacturing PMI all pointed to a health recovery. The risk is to the upside, however I do think some of the good news is priced in. The pair may just formed a double top. I would like to stay on the side line for now

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